Turkey Population:
Without looking it up, I asked: Is the population of Turkey greater or less than 65 million?
Then I asked you to guess the actual number.
Most people Anchor on that 65 million and guess somewhere close to it.
The actual population? About 85 million.
But here's the typical process:
If I had asked "Is it greater or less than 5 million?" you would have guessed much lower. Maybe 40 or 50 million.
Same question. Different anchor. Completely different answer.
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What just happened:
Your Fast Brain (S1) grabbed onto the first number I gave you and used it as a reference point.
That random number hijacked your estimate.
This is called Anchoring. The first piece of information you receive becomes the Anchor that pulls all your subsequent thinking toward it.
Your Slow Brain (S2) could have ignored the anchor and thought independently. But it didn't. It rarely does.
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This runs your life:
Salary negotiations: First number mentioned becomes the anchor.
Real estate: Listing price anchors what you think is reasonable.
Sales: Original price anchors what feels like a good discount.
The first number you hear shapes everything that follows.
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What to do:
When someone gives you a number first, pause.
Ask yourself: "Am I using this number as my reference point, or did I arrive at my answer independently?"
The first number is almost always an anchor trying to pull your thinking.
Part 4 drops soon: Still thinking about where to take this next.
Think Mr. A
Great food for thought.
My brain also anchored on the fact that the question came from you so there might be some trick or experiment in it, and that carried my thought process away. :)
That is really good advice.
What a lot of your posts point to is the importance of slowing down and allowing your brain to work on all its levels.
There is a Stanford professor named Robert Sapolsky, and although he talks about a lot of subjects, when he breaks down some of the neurological elements of thought, it becomes really interesting. The idea of the prefrontal cortex vs the "lizard" brain and all that stuff. It is often hard to do in the moment, but I will try to remember "population of Turkey" as a sort of trigger phrase next time I find myself in a situation like this.